Feedbacks in the Arctic


[ image from 2017 post, discussed at facebook ]

created by Sam Carana, part of AGU 2011 poster
The dangerous situation in the Arctic is depicted by the image on the right, showing that the Arctic is hit by three major developments, i.e. three kinds of warming:
- Global Warming
- Accelerated warming in the Arctic
- Runaway Global Warming

The blue rectangles depict events that feed these developments, in some cases over a number of other events. 

Where developments and events feed each other, these interactions are depicted by lines with the direction of the feed indicated by the arrow.

Such feeds can turn into self-reinforcing feedback loops, i.e. a development or event that feeds back into itself, either directly or over a number of other events. 

Two such self-reinforcing feedback loops are depicted in above image and they are also highlighted in the image on the right. 

Feedback loop #1 occurs where sea ice loss results in albedo changes that accelerate warming in the Arctic, closing the loop by causing further sea ice loss. 

Feedback loop #2 occurs where accelerated Arctic warming weakens methane stores, resulting in methane releases that further accelerate warming in the Arctic. 

In both cases, accelerated warming in the Arctic feeds events that in turn feed other events, eventually causing further acceleration of warming in the Arctic. 

There are further self-reinforcing feedback loops. The image below also pictures how another feedback loop occurs as accelerated warming in the Arctic alters the jet stream, resulting in more extreme weather, in particular heatwaves, that cause wildfires. These wildfires cause all kinds of emissions, including carbon dioxide, dust, soot, volatile organic compounds, methane and other ozone precursors. The greenhouse gases accelerate warming, while aerosols can have a particularly strong impact in the Arctic when they settle on land, snow and ice and cause albedo changes that further accelerate warming in the Arctic. Incomplete burning results in carbon monoxide, which depletes hydroxyl that could otherwise have broken down methane.


In addition, there can also interactions between feedback loops. As an example, changes to the jet stream can cause heatwaves that will speed up snow and ice decline.

Above images show how such feedbacks can speed up acceleration of warming in the Arctic, eventually spiralling out of control and escalating into a third kind of warming, i.e. runaway global warming.

As said, the images show red lines and arrows that depict three major developments, i.e. three kinds of warming, with some feedbacks highlighted in yellow. The image below depicts numerous such feedbacks, while a number of global feedbacks are added below in black, i.e. these are feedbacks that occur globally and that directly contribute to runaway global warming and extinction of species. 


Further details about each of these feedbacks are further below this post, with links to posts that describe such feedbacks. The threat is that without effective and comprehensive action, these feedbacks will lead to runaway warming, i.e. abrupt climate change causing mass death and destruction, and resulting in extinction of species at massive scale. The image below depicts how this can occur rapidly, as described in posts at Arctic-news blog numerous times, e.g. in this 2013 post and later at the extinction page.



The threat that this constitutes to security of supply of food and fresh water is further described in this post and this post, each also pointing at the need for a comprehensive and effective action plan. Without such action, as said, the above three kinds of warming are threatening to lead to a fourth development, i.e. near-term mass extinction of many species including humans, as above image shows. Action recommended as part of the Climate Plan is described at the Action page.


Feedbacks in the Arctic

1. Albedo loss due to snow and ice retreat and due to further snow and ice decline
Albedo loss can occur due to several forms of sea ice decline, i.e. when sea ice retreats, when warming changes the texture of the ice, and when meltwater pools emerge on top of the ice. Global warming is accelerating in the Arctic, causing snow and ice decline that results in albedo loss and thus more sunlight being absorbed, further accelerating warming in the Arctic, in a self-reinforcing cycle. As the snow and ice cover declines, more sunlight gets absorbed both by the Arctic Ocean and on land, where it is causing permafrost to thaw further and ice to melt at greater depth. Deposits of soot etc. (i.e. black carbon, brown carbon, dust, algae and more), and vegetation changes on land can also contribute to albedo loss.


http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/albedo-change-in-arctic.html

2. Heat trapping by greenhouse gases
As temperatures rise in the Arctic, greenhouse gas releases from lakes and from thawing soil that was previously referred to as permafrost are increasingly heating up the atmosphere over the Arctic, by trapping heat. Especially threatening are releases of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, given the potentially high amounts of methane stored in sediments in the form of hydrates and free gas. Also worrying is the rise in nitrous oxide releases from thawing permafrost. This is discussed in many posts such as at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159735280814679
and more generally, in posts such as at:  

3. Vertical currents weaken
As sea ice decline weakens vertical currents in the Arctic Ocean, the seabed warms up faster.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/arctic-sea-ice-loss-is-effectively-doubling-mankinds-contribution-to-global-warming.html

4. Storms and heatwaves causing more vertical mixing of water
This can cause warm water from the top layer of open waters to reach the seabed.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/arctic-waters-are-heating-up.html

5. Storms and heatwaves accelerating Arctic warming
Accelerated Arctic warming causes stronger storms, bringing more warm air into the Arctic and pushing more cold air out of the Arctic, which can combine with changes to the jet stream into an even stronger feedback (see feedback #19). Furthermore, accelerated warming causes stronger heatwaves that cause more melting of snow and ice through the impact of direct sunlight (see feedback #18).
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/06/2020-siberian-heatwave-continues.html


6. More storms, heatwaves and evaporation creating more open water and precipitation 
Extreme weather events such as storms can push sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in more open water. Storms can develop more easily over open water, as there will be more opportunity for evaporation. Such storms can batter the sea ice, and they can come with rain, further devastating the sea ice by speeding up melting and creating melt-pools on top of the ice with a low albedo. Further precipitation can occur in the form of rain or hail that make the sea ice even more slushy, while even snow falling on meltpools can quickly melt and cause such meltpools to grow wider, in a self-reinforcing cycle, since meltpools will absorb more sunlight than a surface of white snow and ice (see also feedback #25). 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/04/supplementary-evidence-by-prof-peter.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/08/methane-hydrates-tipping-point-threatens-to-get-crossed.html

7. Waves and Wind
Extreme weather can cause strong winds and higher waves that degrade sea ice, breaking the ice into pieces. As the ice breaks up into smaller pieces, the water will not only heat up the ice from below, but also at the sides. The surface exposed to water thus increases dramatically, starting with cracks and ending up with small pieces with waves pushing water over the pieces, thus also heating up the top. Cracks in the sea ice also make the sides more exposed to waves and this can cause more water to flood pieces of ice. This causes faster melting of the ice, resulting in more open water that further contributes to snow and ice decline, because as sea ice gets broken up into numerous pieces, these each act as sails, catching the wind and moving more easily with the winds, possibly all the way out of the Arctic Ocean. 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/huge-cyclone-batters-arctic-sea-ice.html

8. Albedo loss due to waves
Waves causing more wavy waters, and more wavy water absorbs more sunlight. Flat water acts like a mirror, reflecting a lot of sunlight away from the ice; waves cause the water to absorb more sunlight.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html

9. Extreme weather causee fires, dust storms, growth of microbes and further emissions 
Emission of greenhouse gases causes global warming which in turn leads to forest fires. The additional greenhouse gases associated with forest fires will directly contribute to further global warming. Forest fires contributed to the 2023 global net land carbon dioxide sink to be the weakest since 2003. Forest fires also reduce soil moisture content, which in turn reduces health and growth of vegetation and makes the land more vulnerable to erosion. Furthermore, aerosols emitted by fires can also contribute to warming, in particular in the Arctic where aerosols such as black and brown carbon settling on the snow and ice cover will cause strong albedo changes, while dust settling on snow and ice can additionally act as nutrient, especially so in environments with a lack of nutrients but with plenty of water, thus strongly stimulating growth of algae and microbes that further contribute to greater absorption of sunlight. Additionally, aerosols can facilitate formation of clouds (as discussed under feedback #25), e.g. melting sea ice can cause more release of iodine into the atmosphere, seeding the growth of new clouds that trap longwave radiation that would otherwise go into space.

[ from 2024 post ]

10. Open Doors (as Jet Stream gets more wavy, warm air moves into Arctic and cold air flows out)
Accelerated Arctic warming changes wind patterns, in particular the polar vortex and jet stream. As warming in the Arctic accelerates, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator decreases, making the jet stream more wavy. Furthermore, stronger storms can hit the Arctic (feedback #5). This makes it easier for warm air to move into the Arctic and for cold air to move out of the Arctic, in turn further decreasing the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Sam Carana once referred to this as: "It's like the door of the freezer is left open."
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/opening-further-doorways-to-doom.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/06/warming-of-the-arctic-fueling-extreme-weather.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/07/whats-wrong-with-the-weather.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/05/more-extreme-weather-can-be-expected.html 

11. Warmer Arctic waters
Global warming is felt most strongly at higher latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic Ocean is right at the top in the North. During the months June and July, insolation in the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth. Sea ice loss leads to more open water that is more prone to heat up than water that is sealed off from sunlight by sea ice. Secondly, warm water is flowing into the Arctic Ocean from rivers and the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. Feedbacks that are contributing to further heat up the Arctic Ocean include the Gulf Stream warming up rapidly (feedback #15), storms (feedback #5 and #6) and heatwaves occurring over the Arctic Ocean (feedback #18) and resulting in warmer water from rivers ending up in the Arctic Ocean (feedback #24). As the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean warms up, heat can penetrate and destabilize sediments, causing methane releases (feedback #16).
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

12. Seismic activity
Retreat of ice and snow cover comes with isostatic rebound, which can trigger underwater earthquakes, volcano eruptions, shockwaves and landslides, in turn destabilizing methane hydrates. See also feedback #20. 

13. Less sea ice forming
Sea ice can be prevented from forming, due to kinetic energy (bubbling) of methane as it rises in the water and enters the atmosphere.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/methane-emerges-from-warmer-areas.html

14. Loss of the latent heat buffer
Where ice disappears, the heat will no longer go into the process of melting the ice, and the heat will instead go into increasing water temperatures. The image shows the July 2020 ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere and the latent heat tipping point estimated to be 1°C above the 20th century average, threatening to soon reach the methane hydrates tipping point estimated to be 1.35°C above the 20th century average (feedback #16).
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/06/warming-of-the-arctic-fueling-extreme-weather.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/10/september-2015-sea-surface-warmest-on-record.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/08/methane-hydrates-tipping-point-threatens-to-get-crossed.html

15. Warmer Gulf Stream
The Gulf Stream heats up due to emissions, and this can temporarily be amplified by heatwaves, resulting in even warmer water getting carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean, thus further accelerating warming in the Arctic and the extreme weather events that this contributes to. The push of increasingly warm water into the Arctic Ocean can also temporarily be amplified due to stronger storms over the North Atlantic. Furthermore, a lid of freshwater at the surface can deteriorate the situation (feedback #28).
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/06/warming-of-the-arctic-fueling-extreme-weather.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

16. Seafloor warming, causing methane release
As the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean heats up, heat can penetrate sediments and cause destabilization of hydrates, resulting in eruption of methane. As the seas in the Arctic Ocean can be very shallow, the methane can erupt with force in the form of plumes, with little opportunity for the methane to get decomposed in the water. 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/04/arctic-sea-ice-in-steep-descent.html

17. Methane expansion
As methane escapes from hydrates, it expands to 160 times its earlier volume. The shock resulting from such expansion can cause further hydrate destabilization.

18. Heatwaves causing snow and ice decline
Extreme weather is causing longer and more frequent and intense heatwaves, resulting in greater snow and ice decline. Changes to the polar vortex and jet stream can make things even worse (feedback #19.).

19. Changes to the polar vortex and jet stream 
Changes to the polar vortex and jet stream are causing more extreme weather events and such extreme weather events can trigger further feedbacks, including:
- storms causing greater vertical mixing of water (feedback #4), especially in shallow waters
- storms and heatwaves accelerating Arctic warming, in turn causing further extreme weather (feedback #5)
- storms and heatwaves increasing humidity in the Arctic (feedback #6)
- strong waves (feedback #7)
- heat waves triggering wildfires (feedback #9)
- jet stream becoming more wavy and reaching high latitudes, moving warm air into the Arctic (feedback #10, mechanism 1.)
- heatwaves causing Arctic seabed warming (feedback #11)
- heatwaves causing snow and ice decline (feedback #18)
- jet stream branching out more, as it - at times - gets colder on land in Winter, while sea surface temperature rises (this feedback, i.e. #19, or mechanism 2.) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/more-extreme-weather.html

The image on the right illustrates how two feedbacks contribute to accelerated Arctic temperature rise:
[ from earlier post ]
    Feedback #1: albedo loss as sea ice melts away and as it gets covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;

    Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice.
Changes to wind patterns (such as the Jet Stream) can also affect ocean currents. In combination with other feedbacks (such as ocean stratification, feedback #29) and with stronger wind (as temperatures rise), this can cause the deep oceans to take up less heat, and result in more heat to accumulate at the surface (image right, bottom right).

Many feedbacks can also combine and amplify each other. The image on the right also depicts this (pink blocks top right), showing how stronger storms can push more heat into the Arctic Ocean. At the same time, as the area of open water increases in the Arctic Ocean, more heat gets released into the atmosphere, resulting in a warmer atmosphere with more water vapor and clouds (feedback #25). Another danger is that, in shallow seas, stronger wird can cause extra heat to easier reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean where it can destabilize methane hydrates and trigger huge releases of methane into the atmosphere (feedback #4).
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

20. Methane hydrate destabilization triggering further methane hydrate destabilization
Submarine volcano eruptions, earthquakes and associated shockwaves can in turn trigger further earthquakes, as well as submarine landslides and sinkholes, especially along fault lines that separate tectonic plates, which can cause destabilization of sediments and trigger methane releases, as discussed under feedback #12. As methane hydrates destabilize, the methane expands in volume, which can destabilize nearby hydrates. 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-events.html

21. Temperature swings causing destabilization
Methane is present in the Greenland ice sheet in the form of hydrates and free gas. Huge temperature swings can hit areas over Greenland over the course of a few days, causing the ice to expand and contract, thus causing difference in pressure as well as temperature. The combined shock of wild pressure and temperature swings is causing movement, friction and fractures in the ice, and this enables methane to rise to the surface and enter the atmosphere.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/04/earthquakes-in-the-arctic-ocean.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/10/september-2015-sea-surface-warmest-on-record.html

22. Changes to trees, plankton and algae
A study by Park et al, May 12, 2015, concludes that the biogeophysical effect of future phytoplankton changes amplifies Arctic warming by 20%. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Changes to the treeline and the type of trees growing in the Arctic can have important albedo impacts, while more nutrients settling on snow and ice can trigger growth of algae. 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/05/mackenzie-river-warming.html
https://www.pnas.org/content/112/19/5921.abstract
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jan/20/norway-arctic-circle-trees-sami-reindeer-global-heating

23. Emissivity change
Feldman et al, Nov 18, 2014, found that open oceans are much less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The research team used a computer model that showed that open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, melting sea ice, and a 2°C rise in the polar climate after 25-year run.
https://www.pnas.org/content/111/46/16297.abstract

24. Rivers heating up the Arctic Ocean 
Heatwaves over North America and Siberia can cause huge amounts of warm water to enter the Arctic Ocean via rivers. The image below shows ocean surface temperatures, with very high anomalies showing up where water from rivers flows into the Arctic Ocean. 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/05/mackenzie-river-warming.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-mechanism.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/08/north-hole-2020.html



25. Water vapor and clouds
Two feedbacks are related, i.e. the water vapor feedback and cloud feedbacks. A specific clouds feedback is discussed at feedback #30. 

The atmosphere can be expected to carry more water vapor as temperatures rise, as discussed in this study and this post. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, more water vapor in the atmosphere will contribute to global warming. More evaporation also brings more heat into the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image on the right, and more heat will also be transferred to the atmosphere as the area of open water increases in the Arctic Ocean. The impact of the increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is also discussed here. 

Clouds can on the one hand reflect sunlight back into space, but on the other hand they can also trap heat and reflect heat back to Earth that would otherwise be radiated out into space. Studies such as by Dessler and by Sherwood et al. conclude that the net result of more clouds is that this will likely to contribute to global warming. See also feedbacks #27 and #29.

At the same time, rising sea surface temperatures will also cause reflectivity loss, by reducing the low-lying clouds that previously reflected sunlight back into space most strongly. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094888

This feedback applies especially to the Arctic. Clouds cause more heat to remain trapped and this occurs all year long, while the impact of clouds reflecting more sunlight back into space depends on the season and doesn't make much difference where in the Arctic there is snow and ice, since there is little albedo difference between the top of clouds and the snow and ice cover. 
https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html

Of particular interest is also the clouds tipping point that starts to occur at 1,200 ppm CO₂e and results in a global temperature rise of eight degrees Celsius (8°C or 14.4°F), as discussed under feedback #30 and in this post.

26. Salinity
Evaporation rates are higher over fresh water surfaces than over saline water surfaces. This, in combination with the higher temperature of river water flowing into the Arctic Ocean, will lead to more evaporation and thus more rain, which in turn results in warm rainwater pools on top of the sea ice, speeding up its demise. 
https://www.itc.nl/library/papers_2013/msc/wrem/abdelrady.pdf
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/05/mackenzie-river-warming.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/01/rain-storms-devastate-arctic-ice-and-glaciers.html

27. More open water in the Arctic contributes to more severe storms and cirrus clouds
With more water vapor in the atmosphere and with more extreme weather events, storms can be expected to strike with greater intensity. This situation gets even worse as the Arctic Ocean loses its sea ice, with the additional open water adding to the water vapor in the atmosphere. This gives more opportunity for plumes above the anvils of severe storms to bring water vapor up into the stratosphere, contributing to the formation of cirrus clouds that trap a lot of heat that would otherwise be radiated away, from Earth into space.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/06/gulf-stream-brings-ever-warmer-water-into-arctic-ocean.html

28. Cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic

Melting of sea ice and glaciers and thawing of the permafrost results in meltwater accumulating in the North Atlantic, where it forms a cold freshwater lid on top of the water. This lid grows further due to more rain falling on top of this lid. This results in less evaporation and transfer of heat from the North Atlantic to the atmosphere, and more ocean heat getting carried by the Gulf Stream underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/10/september-2015-sea-surface-warmest-on-record.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/09/warming-arctic-ocean-seafloor-threatens-to-cause-huge-methane-eruptions.html
This is a self-reinforcing feedback loop, as also described in post such as at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/strong-winds-and-high-waves-hit-arctic-ocean.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/2015-warmest-year-on-record.html

29. Stratification
Warmer water tends to form a layer at the surface that does not mix well with the water underneath, as discussed here. Stratification reduces the capability of oceans to take up heat from the atmosphere, thus speeding up warming of the atmosphere. This is a global phenomenon, but it can hit northern latitudes particularly hard as they are warming up very rapidly. This is depicted in the image on the right (pink blocks bottom right)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/06/high-waves-set-to-batter-arctic-ocean.html
See also: Ocean Heat Content Update 1 - 2022 - Science Talk with Jim Massa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pctkg_LDqcU

[ from earlier post ]

30. Clouds feedback above 1200 ppm CO₂e
A specific clouds feedback occurs when a tipping point of 1,200 ppm CO₂e gets crossed and marine stratus clouds start to disappear, resulting in an additional global heating of eight degrees Celsius (8°C or 14.4°F). While this is also a global feedback, it can hit the Arctic very strongly, given the size of the feedback (8°C) and given how much feedbacks in the Arctic can contribute to this tipping point getting reached.  

[ from earlier post, see also the extinction page ]

31. Species loss and extinction 
Loss of some species can, by the mechanism of co-extincions, contribute directly to runaway global warming and extinction of species at massive scale, as described in post such as When will we die?, at: 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html


Conditions behind the danger - mechanisms and circumstances aggravating the danger

Around the time of the June Solstice (June 22, 2022) the North Pole receives more insolation than anywhere else on Earth.

Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, so less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered before reaching the surface. In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days and sunlight is concentrated in a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night.
 
[ change of seasons, from earlier post ]
How much sunlight does reach the surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole.

The Arctic Ocean, the smallest and shallowest of all oceans, has water that is cold and low in salinity, due to low evaporation and to heavy freshwater inflow from rivers and glaciers; this despite strong inflow of warm and highly saline water, mainly from the Atlantic Ocean but also from the Pacific Ocean. The inflow of warm and highly saline water from the Atlantic Ocean is amplified by the interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Coriolis force. 

As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed (feedback #19), resulting in more extreme weather that at times causes heatwaves over land to extend over the Arctic Ocean combined with a strong inflow of warm freshwater from rivers (feedback #24). Strong winds can also cause high waves and rainfall; each of them on their own can have a dramatic impact on the sea ice—when they combine and interact, their impact can be devastating (feedbacks #5, #6, #7 and #8).

The trigger for a huge temperature rise could be a cataclysmic alignment of an upcoming El Niño with a high number of sunspots, as discussed in an earlier post, and the resulting deformation of the Jet Stream can amplify heatwaves and extend them over the Arctic Ocean, while temporarily speeding up ocean currents that can move huge amounts of heat from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean.

As described below, the depth of a strong La Niña can also aggravate the danger. Deformation of the Jet Stream can lead to increasingly strong winds that can temporarily speed up ocean currents (feedback #15) and abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean. Furthermore, stratification can cause a freshwater lid to form at the surface (feedback #28), causing warm, salty water from the Atlantic to dive under this lid and reach greater depths in the Arctic Ocean.  

[ click on images to enlarge ]
On August 10, 2022, there still was a relatively extensive but very thin layer of sea ice present at the surface, as illustrated by the image on the right that shows an Arctic sea ice extent of 6.475 million km² on August 10, 2022. The suppression of air temperatures that comes with a La Niña that was strong up to that time contributed to this relatively large extent.

As long as air temperatures are low enough to keep this surface ice frozen and as long as there are no strong winds pushing the ice out of the Arctic Ocean, a thin layer of ice will persist and act as a seal, preventing transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.

[ from earlier post ]
The larger the remaining sea ice is in extent, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, which means that more heat will remain in the Arctic Ocean.

The extinction page describes how warmer water tends to form a layer at the surface that does not mix well with the water underneath, as also discussed in an earlier post and confirmed in a more recent study. Stratification reduces the capability of oceans to take up heat from the atmosphere, thus speeding up warming of the atmosphere. Until now, oceans have been taking up 93.4% of the extra heat that is caused by emissions by people. So, even a small decrease in the amount of heat that oceans now take out of the atmosphere would leave much more heat in the atmosphere, thus resulting in a dramatic rise of global air temperatures. Additionally, greater stratification of oceans results in less growth of phytoplankton and thus in less uptake and sequestration of CO₂ by oceans, leaving more CO₂ in the atmosphere. Furthermore, lower oxygen levels at the top layer of oceans can also increase releases of nitrous oxide. Finally, heating up of oceans increases the danger of eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, in particular where the sea is very shallow.  

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is the world’s largest and shallowest shelf sea system, formed through inundation of northeast Siberia during sea level transgression in the early Holocene. The ESAS holds substantial but poorly constrained amounts of organic carbon and methane. These carbon/ methane stores are contained in unknown partitions as gas hydrates, unfrozen sediment, subsea permafrost, gas pockets within and below the subsea permafrost, and as underlying thermogenic gas. (from Steinbach et al., 2020).

Thawing permafrost constitutes a huge threat with many feedbacks. As described at the Threat, a 2024 analysis concludes that Arctic terrestrial permafrost now emits more greenhouse gases than it stores, and the trend is likely to accelerate as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic. The highest carbon dioxide emissions over the 2000-2020 period came from inland rivers and wildfires. The non-permafrost wetlands exhaled the most methane, and dry tundra released the most nitrous oxide. The joint CO₂e of emissions in this analysis only cover part of global emissions, e.g. the analysis excludes emissions from Arctic subsea permafrost and from oceans in general, from many mountain areas and from the Southern Hemisphere. The study also appears to have excluded emissions caused by anthropogenic disturbances such as clear-cutting, logging and fracking activities in the region, while calculations typically use a low global warming potential (GWP) for methane (100-year horizon). The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth.

The transition from sink to source of the region is an important feedback of the temperature rise that is not fully reflected in many climate models. According to the IPCC, 14–175 Gt CO₂e (in carbon dioxide and methane) gets released per 1°C of global warming, which is likely to underestimate the situation by downplaying many feedbacks.

Additionally, Miesner et al. (2023) warn that a further 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.

The above conditions and such circumstances jointly spell a very dangerous situation in the Arctic, further aggravated by the combined impact of the numerous feedbacks discussed above on this page. 

Where ice disappears, less heat can be consumed in the process of melting the ice, and more ocean heat will consequently be pushing up the temperature of water in the Arctic Ocean (feedback #14). This threatens more ocean heat to reach and destabilize methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean (feedback #16) and cause eruption of seafloor methane. 

[ The Buffer has gone, threatening to cause eruption of seafloor methane ]
Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, which increases the heating impact of methane over the Arctic, while methane levels are already very high over the Arctic. The shallow nature of many seas in the Arctic Ocean and long sea-currents make that little or none of the methane that erupts from the seafloor gets decomposed by microbes in the sea column, and even more so where large amounts of methane are released abruptly in the form of narrow, rapidly-rising plumes, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Climate Tipping Points and further Events, Mechanisms and Developments (from earlier post)

The temperature could also be pushed up further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.

[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]

The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events, mechanisms and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

One mechanism that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise is the falling away of the masking effect of aerosols currently emitted jointly with the greenhouse gases produced in the process of burning fossil fuel and biofuel. Blunt measures may be taken to reduce burning of fossil fuel and biofuel, which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and emission of cooling aerosols, while such measures can at the same time encourage many to use more wood burners, causing more emissions of warming aerosols. Sadly, few people are calling for more sophisticated measures, let alone for more effective measures, such as local feebates. Lack of political will to act on the climate emergency is perhaps the most depressing mechanism accelerating the temperature rise.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

Loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America can be regarded both as feedbacks and as tipping points. Loss of Antarctic sea ice and loss of the snow and ice cover on land elsewhere (on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau) can also be regarded as tipping points. Once the snow and ice cover has disappeared and the ice in the soil has melted, no further heat can be consumed in the process of melting. Another seven tipping points are:
- The Latent Heat Tipping Point (feedback #14)
- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (feedback #16)
- The Clouds Tipping Point (also clouds feedback #30)
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point
- The Ocean Surface Tipping Point (also discussed at facebook)
- The Land Evaporation Tipping Point (also discussed at facebook)
- The Aquatic Deoxygenation Tipping Point (also discussed at facebook)

Many feedbacks and tipping points can be felt more strongly in the Arctic than elsewhere, and the Arctic can change abruptly as numerous feedbacks start kicking in with accelerating ferocity and as associated tipping points get crossed, triggering further changes that can be felt across the world. 

4 comments:

  1. UnknownApril 16, 2017 at 4:19 PM

    how can I be the only one reading this one thing sam I can tell you for sure is down here in Ft lauderdale this October the king tide was the highest not only my self but about 20 of my customers that have lived on the water canals or Intracoastal it was the highest they have ever seen it be intresting this october

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  2. Judy WrightApril 24, 2017 at 7:48 PM

    Feebates are nice in future. what we need now is $ to pay for physical action ($1/ton GHG would raise $37 trillion (in year 2016) — satellite shades, damming and cooling rivers as much as possible. Navies will be very useful.
    Compress and then chill air, then bubble it through surface water to make white surface-insulated ice. The ice might melt fairly quickly, but will reflect sun's energy until it does. Arctic ocean is layered; the heat from chilling compressed air can be partly dumped in a deeper layer (though not bottom). Or, in winter, hot air can be chimneyed high into the atmosphere. Water clouds heat, but ice clouds cool. In summer, fog might slow melting.
    Methane is a heavy gas, so low spots can collect it when wind is still, and it's easy to collect it from ponds — float a simple layer of plastic, but not big enough to deny oxygen to water life.

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  3. UnknownMay 19, 2017 at 7:00 AM

    This is like a patient with with a massive infection that has caused a fever, but we are only treating the fever. The earths' immune system is going into overdrive to rid itself of the excess heat, but just the arctic can't bring it down so it has accessed the antarctic via the jet stream to help. I think we will see 200+ sea level rise soon and who knows what from there.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sam CaranaJanuary 21, 2021 at 4:30 PM

    Further discussions are at:
    https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10154493604440161

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